EXCALIBUR

Thoughts on the Mumbai Massacre

2008-12-01T05:13:00Z

Like most Americans, I spent the past few days with family celebrating Thanksgiving but when I travel, I listen to my satellite radio and occasionally, tune in some cable news and heard the first accounts of the Mumbai Massacre (look at the amazing Wikipedia page, h/t Danger Room)in the car without the visuals. Then, when I got to a TV and saw the initial coverage from the various cable feeds (which themselves were invariably feeds from Indian stations with our talking heads superimposed) I made some initial observations and assessments.

Note, I wanted to write this before I see any classified info that will color what I can and can’t say.

First, of course, as usual in these types of incidents, all the initial information is highly suspect. The news show “anchors” and teleprompter readers (note, I deliberately did not use the word journalist because frankly, our TV talking heads no longer perform that function, they are as the Brits call them: news readers) will seize on any rumor, any visual and talk incessantly, almost never providing actual informed commentary. So, there were reports that the local police anti-terror chief was an early victim as he was rushing to the scene, something I doubted. Then, there were estimates of 20-25 attackers, a bit of info I thought was plausible. Then, there was the video.

I am loathe to criticize the police and soldiers who put their lives on the line but I think some informed assessment of the early video is warranted. There appeared to be no attempt to clear the areas of civilians for both crime scene analysis but also to get them out of harms way and frankly, to allow the responders to do their job. One frequent video loop showed a leader of a squad of about 5 solider/police and he was carrying a FN-FAL automatic rifle and the rest appeared to be carrying Short Magazine Lee-Enfield rifles (Aka SMLE), a bolt action rifle the British used in WWII. Other than one guy who looked like he was fully jocked up with helmet, body armor, and assault weapon, none of the cops/soldiers appeared to have any body armor, no radios, no assault weapons, and no load bearing equipment for extra ammo and equipment.

An average US police squad car probably has better equipped cops than anything we saw in that early video. Cops have radios in their cars, on their body, most carry cell phones, carry a 15 round automatic pistol and many magazines, and most vehicles have a long gun (shot gun or assault weapon) and the stuff that SWAT has is very extensive. A couple of days later, what was said to be Indian Navy commandos appeared to be fast roping from an MI-17 with the proper gear. Eventually, a few stills were released showing some of the bad guys carrying what appeared to be folding stock AK-47’s and backpacks, as well as a zodiac on the beach. The Indian’s brought ill equipped folks to a very bad gun battle and the result was days of terror with many deaths. With a soft target like hotels, train stations, and community centers, you will always have human loss of life. But, the response by the local authorities, as now must be the after action analysis, has to be brutal and swift. Just look at how our cops responded to the Virginia Tech shootings. Sadly, this is part of the new normal.

BTW, am I the only one that noticed what had to have been a car bomb? There, in the middle of a street, was an obvious exploded vehicle with what appeared to be only the front axle intact, because the battery was next to it. Folks, grenades don't blow up cars like that, except in Holloywood. I was amazed that none of the so called security experts picked up on that video. Unlike that horrible movie The Kingdom, this was the real deal.

There is no doubt in my mind that these were Pakistani militants, probably linked to Al Qaeda in some fashion, designed to keep the tension between Pakistan and India, if not foment all out war. The terrorists and militants operating in the FATA and other parts of Pakistan need to keep the Pakistani government from keeping their best troops hunting them and instead, looking east towards India. Here’s a link to what the Marine Commandant General Conway says on this subject.

UPDATE: I just came across this article from the AP and it sadly confirms much of my thoughts. How sad that a city of 18 million had no proper SWAT team. The mind reels….I mean did the Indian police not hear about the Black September attacks on the Olympics in 1972? Then, insert another hundred or thousand or so incidents worldwide.

Giving Thanks

2008-11-27T08:37:00Z

Photo caption: A B-52 Stratofortress aircraft out of Minot Air Force Base, N.D., flies over the Pacific Ocean on Nov. 13, 2008. The aircraft is deployed to the 23rd Expeditionary Bomb Squadron at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, and is part of a continuing operation to maintain a bomber presence in the region. DoD photo by Master Sgt. Kevin J. Gruenwald, U.S. Air Force.

American's celebrate Thanksgiving by gathering for large meals featuring turkey and mounds of food, watching football and enjoying each others company. In my years of active duty, I missed two Thanksgiving's with my family, one was spent on alert with my B-52 crew and one stationed on Okinawa with my fellow service members. I give thanks this year for the men and women who continue to serve in far flung places but also those who have paid the ultimate price. Less than two weeks ago, a B-52 crew and flight surgeon were interred in Arlington Cemetery from a crash near Guam in July this year. These families will not have a good Thanksgiving but helped ensure we will. As you sit around the family meal and while shopping, please say a prayer or a toast to the service members who are serving in harms way and those that have already sacrificed through injury or their death.

We salute and give thanks for the service of Col. George T. Martin, Maj. Christopher M. Cooper, Maj. Brent D. Williams, Capt. Michael K. Dodson, 1st Lt. Robert D. Gerren and 1st Lt. Joshua D. Shepherd.

Caption: Gen. Norton Schwartz hands a folded American flag to one of the family members of the fallen B-52 Stratofortress crewmembers Nov. 14 at Arlington National Cemetery in Virginia. A group burial took place for six crewmembers of a B-52 that crashed off Guam's Northwest coast July 21. General Schwartz is the Air Force chief of staff. (U.S. Air Force photo/Staff Sgt. Catherine Thompson)

State Department tapping into "Alliance of Youth"

2008-11-26T01:56:00Z

This site and Excalibur concept has been about expanding the pool of talent involved in national security through non-traditional resources, especially youth. Previously, I've discussed social networking like Second Life and now comes word that the US State Department is hosting a forum in NY City (story here) that will engage with 17 youth movements around the world to try and help them coordinate worldwide with promoting anti-violence, anti-crime and anti-terrorism efforts. Extracts from the State Department briefing:

this is, I would say, part of an overall effort here at the State Department to really better use technology, better use various applications of those technology, including social networking and social media to better communicate with the rest of the world and to do our job. You’re well aware of what we’re doing in terms of the briefing room here, Briefing 2.0, Facebook, our blog, and a lot of other efforts that we’ll talk about after this.

Also, a foundation will be created called the Alliance of Youth Movements. And a hub, an electronic hub, again, anyone will have access to it around the world. Now, this conference – the entire conference will be streamed by MTV and by Howcast. We are – we at the State Department are one partner. In fact, we take a back seat to what the private sector is doing, which is just fabulous. But we’re happy to have gotten this thing started, at any rate.

We feel that around the world, young people are using the internet to push back against violence in a new way, using social networking, convening large groups to have conversations, basically, to share information. And this is something that al-Qaida and the violent extremist groups cannot stand. They cannot stand criticism. You know, sometimes they’ll post videos on YouTube until YouTube takes them down, and they get tremendous amounts of critical comments. They don’t want that. Their whole philosophy is based on trying to isolate potential members and keep them away from critical comment, from discussion. So we want to take exactly the opposite tack, and we think that the technology that exists today is on our side; it’s not on the extremists’ side.

Bravo to the State Department for this effort, there will undoubtedly be problems and I will guarantee some will accuse them of propaganda and probably a lot worse, but in this world, if you aren’t using the internet to communicate and collaborate, you’ll lose every time.

USO in Iraq, model Mayra Veronica says hello to the troops

2008-11-23T14:18:00Z

Photo caption: Model Mayra Veronica sings during a USO show at Camp Liberty, Iraq, Nov. 14, 2008. Veronica is traveling for the second time with Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff U.S. Marine Gen. James E. Cartwright on a USO tour.
DoD photo by U.S. Air Force Master Sgt. Adam M. Stump. Full photo essay from that trip here.

The photo above of Mayra Veronica, a model I confess I didn't know about, reminds me of the famous photos of Marilyn Monroe with the troops in Korea. Miss Veronica is a big supporter of the USO, a group that does wonderful things for the troops. To all the troops, have a great week!

Pirates, yet again

2008-11-20T03:54:00Z

When piracy is on the nightly news and all over the cable news channels, it's becoming a big deal and even the White House and the Pentagon spokesman were talking about it today. This article in the Times Online talks about how difficult any military options are. Indeed. There are reports of 17 ships with over three hundred hostages, I'm guessing these are multiple bands of pirates, now in competition for the money and the women in Somalia, read this article and they discuss how these thugs are becoming the big men on campus. The Indian Navy's ship INS Tabar sunk a pirate mother ship and killed it's crew, good for them. The Brits recently captured more with their Royal Marines seizing a Dhow. Excellent job lads. And it sounds as if the collective world (or at least those with Navy's in the region) is getting fed up with this situation. Don't forget, Blackwater's ship Macarthur is still enroute with Erik Prince saying on today’s news he'll be meeting in London with over 60 companies interested in his services.

One last comment, from an old post at Danger Room, I came across this UN website today with satellite imagery. But what was much more impressive was the development of one page intel products with locations, trends, and explanations. I'm telling you, this is some of the best intel I've seen and kudos to the folks developing this stuff. Take a look at everything from African villages being razed to post Tsunami imagery, but especially the Somalia page here. Check out a couple of their images. Very impressive.

African pirates raise the stakes

2008-11-18T05:10:00Z

H/T Danger Room. This story by Reuters says the latest pirate action took place 450 miles from Kenya, of course, given the African coastline, it could be much closer to the coast but the seizure of a ship the size of an aircraft carrier, less than one year old, carrying $100 Million US Dollars worth of oil, headed to the United States, is in my mind, a game changer. Looking at photo of the ship, see Danger Rooms post here, tells me they either had a serious mother ship, or aircraft to assault the ship, or the sailors on the ship were so oblivious to the event the pirates found something hanging down and climbed up.

Unbelievable. Seriously, how do pirates get dozens if not hundreds of miles away from the African coast and seize this massive ship. Is the intent to embarrass the Saudi's? The US? The owners? Is the intent to cause an eco-catastrophe? Will they drive the ship into Liberia and set fire to the ship causing oil market instability? No idea, there are many more scenarios. A ship here, a ship there, a $100 million dollar oil on a tanker, now you are talking serious money.

Photo: 101st Air Assault in Afghanistan

2008-11-16T15:08:00Z

Standing by on a hill top, soldiers with the 101st Division Special Troops Battalion, 101st Airborne Division watch as two Chinook helicopters fly in to take them back to Bagram Air Field, Afghanistan, Nov. 4, 2008. The soldiers searched a small village in the valley below for improvised explosive device-making materials and facilities. U.S. Army photo by Spc. Mary L. Gonzalez.

More photos of the 101st Air Assault Division in Afghanistan here.

Obama's call for civilian national security force and Emanuel's call for national civil service: worth the discussion

2008-11-14T03:10:00Z

In the run up to the end of the election, some commentators, especially on the right side of the spectrum, made much of the comments candidate Obama made regarding a “civilian national security force” with the commentary that this was somehow going to be a parallel civilian security apparatus. Now, here’s a link to a previous interview with President Elect Obama’s designated Chief of Staff Congressman Rahm Emanuel discussing a three month obligatory training period for 18-25 year olds. Here’s how the interview is described on the site:

In a 2006 interview with Ben Smith of the NY Daily News, Rahm Emanuel, who will be Barack Obama's White House chief of staff, laughed at Smith's concerns about how far-reaching a mandatory civil-service plan would be.

This interviewer clearly has personal issues with “living in a barracks” (I don’t know if this guy is homophobic or just watched Full Metal Jacket too many times and fears a blanket party, dude, grow up!) but listening to the interview, what I think Emanuel is discussing is a sort of minimalist approach to national service. It’s difficult to ascribe motive or intent to these two notions of civilian service, but I’m going to take a stab and frankly, I don’t think either of these ideas is radical and I think they might have a serious ability to help our national and homeland security.

First: civilian national security force. In both Afghanistan and later Iraq, we have Provincial Reconstruction Teams or PRT’s which are transitioning from solely military organizations to civilian dominated outfits and that is a very good thing. PRT’s have performed brilliantly in Afghanistan with all sorts of reconstruction, governance, logistics, all of the non-kinetic, non-military areas that are vital to rebuilding shattered societies and communities. US Agency for International Development is recognized by most observers as under manned and increasing both the size of the organization and their funding should be on the President Obama’s agenda. I’ve also believed for a long time that a reserve corps of State Department folks is needed as does the Bush Administration.

From the Office of the Civilian Response Corps here, is this extract from President Bush’s State of the Union address in 2007:

"A second task we can take on together is to design and establish a volunteer Civilian Reserve Corps. Such a corps would function much like our military reserve. It would ease the burden on the Armed Forces by allowing us to hire civilians with critical skills to serve on missions abroad when America needs them. And it would give people across America who do not wear the uniform a chance to serve in the defining struggle of our time."– President Bush’s State of the Union Address, January 23, 2007

Also from that same site:

Civilian Reservists will enter into an agreement with the Department of State to serve for 4 years, during which time they will be expected to deploy for one year. They will be given the option to end their service upon returning from their one year deployment or to extend their service for another 4 years, if they performed at a satisfactory level. Upon entering the Reserve Component, they will be required to attend 2-3 weeks of orientation training, and will receive 10-15 days of pre-deployment training prior to each deployment. In addition, they must attend 5-10 days of annual training throughout their service. Refusal to deploy or to attend mandatory training will result in their removal from the CRC and they will be required to repay the government for the full cost of their training, including related travel, lodging, pay, and per-diem.

OK, so if the proposal by candidate Obama is along the lines of a State Department Reserve Corps and increasing US AID, I think that’s a great idea. Now, let’s ponder national civil service for a three month period. First, I would presume that the military (active and reserve/guard) would be not required to do this nor qualified first responders such as firefighters, police officers, and EMT’s (if they join between 18-25, if not, I guess they would have to participate)

So, what could you do in three months? I’m thinking first aid training (ala American Red Cross), potentially disaster response stuff (debris clearing, fire fighting) possibly basic firearms training, especially weapons safety, which actually could be done with electronic weapons simulators. I think living in the outdoors to include starting fires, surviving severe weather, building shelters, etc. Basically, take parts of Army/Marine basic training (physical fitness, team work, firearms) throw in some first aid training, combine with some Boy Scout/Girl Scout outdoors stuff, this would be good for everyone. But, to put meat on the bones, I would make a final month (either in the 3 or add a fourth) and have these folks actually do things: fight fires in the west, disaster response (hurricane, flooding, and earthquakes) volunteer in hospitals, clinics, or as a volunteer first responders in rural America, or on the border watching for illegal’s crossing.

As they say, the devils in the details. Maybe I’m way too naive on this, but I don’t see this as some brown shirt/Gestapo move by Emanuel but there could be an aspect like the CCC, the Civilian Conservation Corps which of itself was a jobs kick start program during the Great Depression. I’ve also seen commentary that Emanuel went to Israel (he’s Jewish) to serve in the Israeli Defense Forces or along those lines. I remember very clearly when I went to Israel on military exchange during college, my host family’s father used to patrol the markets in the weekends with an Uzi, a couple of extra mags, and a ball cap or some other identifying piece of clothing. One thing I do agree with conservative observers, if George Bush had proposed this, the cry would have been heard round the world! Either way, I kind of like both these ideas.

A trip down memory lane photos and postcards of old military front gates

2008-11-14T02:53:00Z

This is mostly a bunch of old Air Force main gate postcards and some other assorted photos, but it's a really cool look at lots of vintage gates and Air Policeman. Enjoy

Thanks Gene, the BBB!

We have a winner: Austal wins coveted Joint High Speed Vessel contract!

2008-11-14T02:15:00Z

H/T Defense News article here.

Congratulations to Austal USA for (finally!) receiving the contract for the Joint High Speed Vessel! As I’ve discussed in previous posts, this is a program near and dear to my heart and I fully intend to write a book about this someday (and of course a movie deal will be forthcoming). The High Speed Vessel program began in the late nineties and many observers (myself especially) noticed a very unusual ship operated by the Royal Australian Navy, the HMAS Jervis Bay. The RAN leased an aluminum commercial car ferry and used it for relief operations to East Timor.

What captured my attention, after months of research, was the open nature of the vehicle deck, coupled with a large passenger area, all with a low draft hull but with the ability to make better than 30 knots. My research was focused on capability, not hull form, type, manufacturer, none of that stuff that maritime designers and naval architects become obsessed with. I was obsessed with its potential. As someone who spent much time and many sleepless nights waiting on broken C-5’s throughout the Pacific, I really thought this type of ship was a potential game changer and my boss at the SEAL headquarters also immediately understood the potential and before long, with no money but a lot of enthusiasm, we were part of the team of organizations which would eventually lease the HSV X-1 Joint Venture.

Eventually, the US military would operate four high speed vessels, technically, the first was the Westpac Express and a sister ship to the design chosen today. Built by Austal in Western Australia, they operated in direct support of the Marines of III MEF on Okinawa. Then, we got the HSV X-1, followed by the Army’s lease of the TSV 1X Spearhead, and finally the HSV-2 Swift, the best design of all with the most capability. The latter three ships were all built by Incat in Tasmania Australia. Only the Swift and WestPac Express are still operated by the US military. While assigned to the Pacific Command as a reservist, I also convinced the theater Special Operations Commander there to get another HSV and while successful in convincing the SECDEF and SOCOM Commander of the need, the decision was made to go after the original HSV X-1 Joint Venture and while it performed fairly well (from what I hear) the decision was made to allow it to go back to the manufacturer.

Later, I also did work as a contractor on the program and throughout the entire process, was amazed at the institutional opposition, mostly because it didn’t look like traditional navy grey steel single hulled ships. Then along came the Littoral Combat Ship and when the Navy selected Austal’s trimaran as one of the two designs, I thought there was still hope. Now today, to see one of the two original companies selected, is a very good day indeed. The program looks to be five ships for the Army and five for the Navy. I’m going to go out on a limb and say this will not be the end of this program, either for the US military or foreign buyers. In today’s’ world, buying a vessel that’s part multi-mission ship, part helicopter carrier, part afloat staging base, that can do 30 plus knots and costs 180 million, will be a hit.

Two final comments: When we had our first major meeting at the Navy Warfare Development Command and we went around the room and asked, what each of us thought about this concept’s potential I said it will be the C-130 of the sea. It could be a relief or rescue vessel, a command post, a helo carrier, an amphib like ship, and most important to me, a special operations forces afloat staging base. The most succinct comment ever uttered on the high speed vessel was the first Navy SEAL SDV platoon commander who embarked and at the end of his brief wrote: you are only limited by your imagination.

Attention Air Force flight line personnel: beware of propellers!

2008-11-12T16:04:00Z

OK, it is looking more and more like the Air Force under the leadership of General Norty Schwartz is really considering doing the unthinkable from just a couple years ago: getting serious about counter-insurgency airpower. For years, Air Force leaders, their surrogate talking heads, and hired think-tanks have made the claim that the Air Force was really engaged in the COIN fight: strike aircraft hitting targets, ISR support, cargo hauling. Basically, that the Air Force of the post Cold War era was good enough, so why look at a fleet of low end COIN aircraft?

Inside Defense news has two headlines of great interest to me, both require subscriptions but here’s a link to a forum that has posted the first one regarding the AT-6’s. Interestingly, in those forum discussions, there are claims that many USAF personnel are very interested in both the new RC-12 ISR aircraft as well as speculation that a buy of armed AT-6’s might be imminent. This story here says the USAF is buying a fleet of 40 RC-12 ISR aircraft to supplement the UAV fleet.

The two titles for the articles (subscriptions required for both):

-- Propeller-Driven Light-Attack Aircraft at ‘Forefront’ of ACC Plans

-- ACC Officials Want Air Force Irregular Warfare Fleet of Aircraft

The fact that these articles are being written at all is significant but the pace at which the service is considering change is depressingly slow. Today, Noah Shachtman in Danger Room writes about the fact that USAF leaders are “coming around” to agree with SECDEF Gates on many of these issues, interestingly, the General quoted, LtGen. Raymond Johns Jr., is a T-38 IP/airlift/test pilot and not a fighter guy. Noah apparently interviewed the general and some comments are here. .

And here comes a AF Times story that reenlistment rates in the Air Force are plummeting. You know, people really hate it when you screw around with their careers and ability to serve their nation (that concept formerly known as “force shaping” which was a euphemism for kicking out people because you are a terrible personnel planner) all the while trying out new uniforms. Hopefully, the fact that our leaders have begun to take care of the here and now and not totally obsess with the future may be paying dividends.

Here’s one of the quotes from the discussion with LtGen Johns:

"I need enough fighter attack platforms to make sure we can defend the homeland, to respond to crisis globally. But some of these irregular war[s] may not require the highest, the most [advanced fighters]," Lt. Gen. Johns says. "But they require an MQ-9 [Reaper drone]. They may require an A-10. They may require a lower-end platform. So I'm into being cost effective."

Here’s another suggestion for LtGen. Johns: fire some of those high priced think-tanks and consultants, they haven’t seen the GWOT goal posts since kickoff.

Veterans Day Salute: all who served but especially Master Sergeant Doug Welsh, Ohio Air Guard

2008-11-11T15:53:00Z

Today is Veterans Day, first known as Armistice Day commemorating the end of World War I, later expanded to cover all military veterans. I'm watching live coverage at Arlington Cemetery and later, President Bush will help reopen the Intrepid Museum in lower Manhattan, not far from the site of the World Trade Center. The photo above is of two college friends of mine SMSgt Michelle Welsh and her husband, MSgt Doug Welsh. Doug and I were in AF ROTC together for our first couple of years and then Doug joined the Ohio Air Guard to help pay for college and he had a long and distinguished career in the Buckeye Guard, starting out as a weapons load technician on A-7 attack jets and later transferring to the KC-135 (pictured above with Michelle) when the SLUF's were retired. Michelle called me earlier this year and after an awkward hello, she told me Doug had passed away from cancer that he'd been struggling with for awhile. I never knew. She couldn’t find my number and only when looking through his box of medals and patches, found my number. How appropriate.

Doug and I were very close in college but time and distance diminished the frequency of our contact, but not the intensity of our friendship. He and I, like many of our contemporary military buddies, knew almost every line of all the "classic" movies like John Wayne, war movies, and comedy's like Animal House and the Blues Brothers. Doug and I might not see each other for years and pick up exactly where we left off. He loved his family, especially his fantastic wife Michelle, he loved serving in the military, and he loved his country very deeply and he was a true patriot and warrior.

One of my favorite stories Doug used to tell was of an annual exercise they deployed to Hawaii for. On the very last sortie, one of the A-7's blew a motor and they had to change the engine before the big beach bash could begin. All the maintainers threw in and Doug said they were up to their neck in oil, grease, parts and tools. Just as they were getting the thing nearly complete, the Air Guard General walked up and watched the whole scene and said "you know, my grandson gave me a tool set for Christmas." Being respectful, they stopped what they were doing and listened to the General. He said, "it's got one of those little tool things with a magnet on so if you drop something, you can just pick it up, you guys have one of those too?" Before one of the senior Chief Master Sergeants killed him for slowing down their beach bash, someone got him out of there! Doug, I miss you and wish you were here this Veterans Day. But, I know you are in a good place and enjoying the day with those that have gone before. To all those that have served and all those currently out on the pointy end, thank you for your service. If you get a moment and want to watch an amazing video from CBS Sunday Morning, (h/t my friends at Blackfive.net) it’s about a trip for Wounded Warriors paid for by the billionaire owner of a casino, Sheldon Adelson,.

RIP Colonel Ripley and Happy Birthday Marines

2008-11-10T15:33:00Z

Maj. Edward Greeley escorts the casket of Col. John Ripley during his funeral at U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Md., Nov. 3. The funeral was said to be one of the largest ever held at the academy. Photo by Cpl. Jacob H. Harrer.

Today is the 233^rd birthday of the United States Marine Corps and we wish all Marines everywhere Happy Birthday! I especially would like to offer my best wishes to my cousin Luke Pernotto, veteran of two combat deployments to Iraq, now an infantry instructor and three Marine Colonels I’ve worked for in the Pentagon: Matt Chicchinelli, Joaquin Malavet, and Royal Mortenson. But two weeks ago, there was an incredible sadness in the Marine Corps family with the loss of a towering figure: Colonel John Ripley. Best known for his heroism at the Dong Ha Bridge where he dangled for three hours underneath the bridge, rigging explosives to delay the offensive of 20,000 North Vietnamese. The photograph shows the scene at the Naval Academy Chapel for his funeral, the accompanying story says it was one of the largest funerals ever held there.

Rest in Peace Colonel Ripley, a grateful nation thanks you and best wishes to Marines everywhere: Semper Fi!

Congratulations and good luck to President Elect Obama and his entire team

2008-11-06T14:33:00Z

I, (full name) having been appointed a (rank), United States Air Force, do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States, against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office upon which I am about to enter, so help me God.

The above words represent the oath of office for an Air Force officer; I have taken that oath (or words close to that) at least four times in my life: when I entered the scholarship program of ROTC, upon graduation from college and being commissioned a second lieutenant, receiving my regular commission, and when I entered the Air Force Reserve. Note, we don’t swear loyalty to an individual, to a position such as President, or to a political party. We swear fealty to a piece of paper, one that represents collectively the people of the United States of America.

In our country, unlike many others, we have a single national leader. Great Britain for example, has a head of State which is the Sovereign, currently represented by Elizabeth II, Queen of England and they have a head of government, represented by Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Our nation has the most effective armed forces on earth and we also have the most stable. The reason, in my opinion, is that the officer corps understands completely that we serve the people and every so often, occasionally through death, once through resignation, but most often through elections, we transition our national leadership. Two days ago, President Elect Obama was selected via a peaceful nation election and on January 20^th 2009, he will assume the office of the President of the United States and by extension, Commander in Chief of our Armed Forces.

We congratulate President Elect Obama, Vice-President elect Biden, their families, and their soon to be named leadership teams and wish them the very best luck for their term. When creating this company Excalibur R&D, this vision, and through the words on this site, I have deliberately avoided any hint of political because frankly, whatever happens politically, the nation needs defending. Of course, we have elections to determine how the policy decisions will be made. The world we live in is a dangerous and complicated environment and President Elect Obama will be taking the reins amidst financial difficulties, American troops in combat in two major areas, and a host of hidden and in many cases unforeseen challenges which lie ahead. President Elect Obama will have little opportunity for rest and reflection as the schedule now becomes nearly as frenetic as the campaign and as I said before, the best of fortune to them. Here is a quote from former Defense Secretary Rumsfeld which I think sums up the most difficult challenge for President Elect Obama:

There are known knowns. There are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we do not know we don’t know.

To Senator McCain and Governor Palin, their families, and supporters, it’s time for rest with knowledge they gave it their all. Senator McCain’s life has been of long and distinguished service and his concession speech the other night illustrated how much he exemplifies the best of integrity, character, and grace. A few years ago, certain rabid elements in our society castigated our national leaders for sending troops into combat while their children did not serve. I find it fascinating that in this election cycle, three of the final four individuals for our national leadership had offspring who had or were serving in a combat zone.

On November 5^th, our troops woke up to the news that Barrack Hussein Obama II won the Presidential election. On January 20th, he will take the Oath of Office and be sworn in as our 44^th President. Our troops will continue to keep performing their duties brilliantly. We wish those deployed in harms way, as well as all of them serving anywhere, the same good fortune we wish upon the new Commander in Chief as they collectively serve the United States of America.

May God continue to bless America.

Planning for the future and UAV's: be wary of 40 year projections

2008-11-03T15:38:00Z

(I've had this post done for over a week but Mr. Gates and his minions kept blocking me, I showed them!)

Top Gun Commander “Viper” to “Maverick” on the fight the day his Dad (his pet aircraft program) was killed:

What I'm about to tell you is classified. It could end my career.
We were in the worst dogfight (budget scrap over new aircraft) ever.
Bogeys like fireflies (propeller driver aircraft and UAV’s) all over the sky (DOD Budget)

OK people, what EXACTLY is going on inside the USAF and the combatant commanders right now, especially CENTCOM and SOCOM? Nearly everywhere you look (on the internet and in defense/aviation circles),there’s talk about propeller driven aircraft, and I include UAV’s in that mix, and they are seemingly ascendant. There are reports of something called the Liberty Ship Project here, there is the previously reported by Excalibur mulling of a prop-driven light attack ISR aircraft here (I still have seen no other confirmation of this), another Inside Defense report of a green light to a future AC-27 “Stinger gunship” based on the new Joint Cargo Aircraft C-27, and now, I see a report about the Air Force’s UAV Task Force proposing a 40 year plan to the SECDEF for UAV’s that would take the service out to 2047.

On lots of props stuff for the USAF: brilliant. On a 40 year plan for UAV’s: absurd.

If anyone on this earth thinks that they can predict or even hope to project with anything approaching a plan, the next 40 years … with something to do with technology they are simply, um, er, (looking for a word here which won’t get me into too much trouble…must find word which retains my credibility yet doesn’t get me court-martialed…..must find word)

Not-credible (whew! A hyphenated word!) Silly is another one. Others leap to mind….

From 1968 to today we’ve seen a rather incremental advancement in aerospace technology: better engines, more precise weapons and navigation, satellite technology and stealth, yet much of that advancement came in the latter years. Now, think back 10 years with the vast changes we’ve seen in the internet, computing power, miniaturization, power advances (and sure to be many more with the price of fuel and all the attention for both green purposes but also to get away from fossil fuels/Middle east dependency). While I certainly applaud USAF leaders “planning for the future,” to imagine that anyone has the prescient ability to forecast that far out is bucking the own traditions of our very own USAF.

From the time I entered Civil Air Patrol in 1974, I’ve seen at least 4 knee jerk reactions to the personnel situation in the Air Force. In the 1974 timeframe, a massive “reduction in force” (RIF) happened and tons of people that were in ROTC and other programs were simply shown the door as the end of the Vietnam War saw massive cuts in personnel, units and aircraft. At the end of Desert Storm which sorta coincided with the end of the Col War, yet another RIF with among them, my former B-52 Navigator Mike L. being told volunteer to leave with higher benefits or wait out an almost certain board to determine whether you can stay or go. But if told to leave, your benefits would be about 25% if he had volunteered to leave.

Being the hardhead he is, when told he had to write a reason on his “application to leave” he wrote “I’m leaving because you are forcing me out.” When told he couldn’t put that Mike, had a few choice words for that hapless individual. Mike is now a Navy Nurse and the Air Force’s loss was the Navy’s gain. Finally, just a few months ago, the service was throwing out personnel all over the place and like John Belushi breaking the guitar of the “sensitive guy” on the stairs in Animal House, said simply: sorry. Immediately, the incoming SECDEF stopped that dumb move and was backed up by General Schwartz and SECAF Donley.

One thing about long range planning and one of the BIGGEST mistakes the USAF made. If you look at that Air Force of 1968, what aircraft are left: a few specialized C-130’s (like I used to fly), the T-38 Talon fleet, a few cats and dogs like the U-2, the upgraded engine KC-135R’s, and the venerable BUFF: the B-52. Back when Mike and I were crewed together, I remember hearing about proposals and plans to re-engine the B-52’s back then we had G’s and H’s, now just a few squadrons of H’s. “They” said back then, it wouldn’t be cost effective to re-engine the BUFF. Since the plane is now scheduled to fly until 2040, that call was the wrong one.

Readers, I don’t think it’s very credible for a plan for the next 40 years on things which are by their very nature, technologically dependant and evolving. The design, communications with/by/through/, the payloads, the powerplants, literally everything to do with UAV’s will evolve and dramatically over the next few years, let alone 40. Our government has a 1 year budget cycle, a 2 year Congressional election cycle, a 4 year presidential cycle. Chairman Mao would have a tough time with a 40 year plan.

So, beware Colonels or Navy Captains with 40 year plans.

UPDATE: H/T Drudge Report: Yahoo news service from AP is reporting here that the USAF is opening up a pipeline to allow non-rated officers (not pilots or Navs) the ability to enter UAV training, get some light aircraft instruction, then specialize in UAV’s. This is a wise move and is reminiscent of the action during the Vietnam War to put Navigators, later called Weapons Systems Officers, in the back seat of F-4’s. The F-4’s were suffering pretty bad losses and the way to increase the pipeline was to not require pilots to sit in the back.